On February 26th, Mohammad Shtayyeh, the Palestinian prime minister, resigned, signalling a need for new political arrangements to address the evolving reality, particularly in Gaza. The decision is in response to the efforts involving the United States and Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, to persuade the authority to overhaul itself in a way that would enable it to take over the administration of Gaza after the war. In fact, Israel had strongly hinted that it would not allow the authority’s existing leadership to run Gaza. As of now, Israel’s “day-after plan” does not explicitly endorse a two-state solution and excludes entities deemed to support terrorism, which probably include the current PA. However, it is unlikely that Mr. Shtayyeh’s resignation would be enough to revamp the authority or persuade Israel to let it govern Gaza. Therefore, arguably a starker break from the current authority is necessary.
At the moment, President Mahmoud Abbas will stay in position along with his security chiefs. With no functioning parliament in the areas controlled by the authority, President Abbas remains the pivotal figure. As a result, any prime minister has little room for taking significant actions without the approval of Mr. Abbas. Furthermore, although his resignations were accepted, Mr. Shtayyeh is set to remain as a caretaker prime minister whilst a replacement is sought. Currently, the favoured successor is Mohammad Mustafa, an economist with ties to the president. However, it may be weeks if not months until a substitute is announced. Thus, for the time being, Mr. Abbas is substantially “buying time”; this way he signals international actors that he is taking measures to change the PA whilst also avoiding making any practical and substantial change.
Regardless of who will replace Mr. Shtayyeh, the leadership of the PA poses significant challenges. Firstly, as mentioned, President Abbas is increasingly autocratic. Postponed elections, ruling by decree, and exerting control over the courts, including dissolving the council appointing judges, have raised concerns about democratic governance. The appointment of technocratic prime ministers, including Salam Fayyad, in the past has seen clashes, and the recent tenure of Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh was marked by internal feuds and a failure to implement meaningful reforms. Both Shtayyeh and his predecessor, Rami Hamdallah, left office deeply unpopular with the Palestinian public. Despite being scapegoats, real power remained concentrated in the president’s office and among a select group of advisers, indicating a persistent power structure likely to persist in a new government. Therefore, if the international community truly wants to lay the foundations for a long-lasting peace based on a two-states solutions, it is necessary for the PA to be reformed, starting from its President rather its relatively uninfluential prime minister.
The second main challenge is money. The PA is grappling with severe financial constraints. It heavily relies on Israel to collect taxes amounting to 64% of its total revenue. Following Israel’s decision to withhold a substantial portion of this cash following Hamas’ attacks in October, the PA has not been able to pay public-sector salaries on time and in full. Furthermore, the ban on most Palestinian workers entering Israel led to over 20% unemployment in the West Bank. Fortunately, this issue will be alleviated by the agreement reached between Israel and the PA, thanks to Norway’s mediation. As a result of this agreement some frozen tax funds will be released. The PA is due to receive $114 million from Israel, which is set to be followed by other payments. Access to this money will hopefully avoid the collapse of the PA and allow it to regain control and consensus in its territories.
The final challenge revolves around the need to come up with a viable plan to end Israel’s occupation of territories captured in 1967. This is necessary to establish the PA as a legitimate authority, rather than one under the control of Israel. Inevitably, in order to achieve this, Israel’s cooperation is necessary. In fact, the US has been pressuring Netanyahu to commit to restoring the PA’s role in Gaza and engage in post-war diplomacy aimed at a two-state solution. Although currently Netanyahu does not seem inclined towards this scenario, a reformed PA might be the first step towards gaining more consensus.
Finally, a reformed and revitalised PA able to govern in the West Bank and Gaza seems the only viable option to one day achieve the desired two-states solution. In order to achieve this, the PA needs to surmount many challenges. Despite its reliance on Israel’s cooperation for access to money and the prospect of ending Israeli occupation, the PA could and should start from an internal reform which, through the support and funding of keen allies, especially the US, it can achieve. The first step towards this should be to put an end to Mr. Abbas’ rule and his attempt to buy time whilst avoiding radical change.
By The World Forum on Peace and Security
