Philippines, a strategically important country in the Asia-Pacific region and an essential ally for the United States (U.S.) against China. Global stability and tensions are lately tied to the developments that are happening in the Middle East and the Eastern Europe however, a greater risk awaits the world in the Asia-Pacific region. China and the U.S. are the two superpowers in the world and a conflict is bound to happen between them down the road either by direct confrontation or some sort of proxy war. World peace, stability and economy could take an immense damage if these two superpowers clash in the future.
Recently, China has stated that the U.S. is “stoking military confrontation” by sending a powerful missile launcher with a 1,600-kilometer maximum fire range to drills in the Philippines. Following a series of deadly face-offs between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, during which Philippine ships were attacked with water cannons, wounding numerous Filipino sailors, the U.S. Army’s Mid-Range Capability (MRC) ground-based missile system arrives in a tense region. The MRC missile system, often referred to as the Typhon system, is being deployed for the first time to the Indo-Pacific theatre. This development coincides with a series of military drills between the U.S. and the Philippines.[1]
In connection to these events, Philippines getting stockpiled or supplemented with these powerful missile systems and a huge military exercise to happen right in the doorstep of China sends a strong signal of warning. Fundamentally stating that the U.S. and its allies will be ready if tensions keep on rising. Putting these missile systems into Philippines also raises the risk of confrontation with the China because these systems putting Chinese coastlines and artificial islands into direct reach as well. If U.S. keeps on arming its allies in the area and provoke China in such examples, region’s stability might deteriorate further. A similar response could also come from China’s side and this standoff could result in an all-out confrontation which would shake the balance of powers in general.
Furthermore, Philippines also endangers its own security and stability by hosting these weapons as well. On the other hand, Philippines evidently struggles to get away from any external influence of both superpowers however, its existence in the region also strongly tied to the U.S. itself. This rivalry of the superpowers also threatens the security and the regional autonomy with high militaristic influences. Expecting a reaction and pushing for a response could also further worsen the already tense region itself. All these examples of risks and armaments increases the chances of missteps that might endanger the peace and stability of the globe which would forever change the dynamics of powers in the future.
Moreover, this kind of active role of U.S. in the region also raises several potential scenarios for the future. First of these scenarios is, China may adopt a more direct stance in the area if the U.S. keeps strengthening its military presence and allies, which it regards as an existential danger. This may trigger a new Cold War in which economic sanctions and proxy conflicts are used as diplomatic instruments to sabotage international trade and stability. Second scenario could also be that the other several ASEAN countries might actively join the interplay of power struggle between these two superpowers and feed on the tension itself that might further shake the balance of powers or they could settle themselves in a more diplomatic sense to act as mediators.
In conclusion, the current strategic move of further arming Philippines and initiating a military exercise in the region risks the stability and peace to transform into open confrontations. Economic implications would also devastate if any open conflict would happen between U.S. and China since South China Sea is vital for global trade and any kind of extended periods of instability or open war might interrupt these routes, resulting in substantial global economic consequences. The path ahead for the region requires more of a diplomatic approach rather than the armament and direct steps for confrontation, otherwise a clash between the U.S. and China could redefine the 21st century world order, economy and the global stability in unexpected ways.
By The World Forum on Peace and Security
[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/22/asia/us-land-attack-missile-philippines-china-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
